The Crude Oil has started the week in another strong rally, that would suggest to respect the possibility that 37.75 could be a low of more importance, which was registered a slightly lower than expected target at 41.58.
A five-wave advance of Minute degree is the wave structure that will confirm the trend change.
Correcting Down :
As shown on the daily charts, the Gold’s pullback that started this week is likely tracing out a zigzag as the Minute waves b (circle) or ii (circle). This correction will amount to Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level of the first strong rally from 1072 low, over the coming weeks.
As noted in the prior daily posts, the Minor wave C might trace out in a three-wave or impulsive five-wave sequence, to develop Intermediate fourth-wave (not shown) as a “triangle” or “flat” correction.
In the Gold’s weekly frame, the retracing up to the 38 percentage of the decline in Minor wave B, would suggest that countertrend rally of Minor wave C is underway.
As shown on the charts below, it is expected that entire correction in ongoing Intermediate wave (4) will ultimately develop as a “triangle” or “flat”.
In the weekly frame, it is anticipated that final rally in Minor fifth wave of extending wave (5), when it starts, will carry the Dollar/Yen to a new extreme above the 125.855 high.
The ultimate target for the overall impulsive advance, which started at 75.540 low on November 2011, is around the 129.932 level.
Bullish Outlook :
The 3 straight days rally in Dollar/Yen, would suggest that correction in the Minor wave 4 was completed at 116.177.
The outlook could be changed to bullish now, in the anticipated final rally to new high above 125.855 – Minor fifth wave of Intermediate extending wave (5).
Bearish Outlook :
The Euro did not complete its wave structure to expected target, but the 3 straight days decline would suggest that overall correction as a double zigzag could have terminated.
The outlook could be changed to bearish now, and continuing decline below 1.04620 is anticipated.
Bullish Outlook :
The 3 straight days rally in Dollar Index, indicates the end of correction in Intermediate fourth wave at 92.62.
Based on the bullish outlook, it’s expected that Index will continue to advance in Intermediate wave (5) (not shown).
Bearish Outlook :
Today’s breaking 1.5425 low in Cable, will likely lead to exceeding the 1.5330 level and confirm the bearish outlook in medium term.
And this bullish concept on the Silver chart remains in gray labels, until I could have my great Mentor’s advice on it.
The sharp retracing to the Fibonacci 0.5 level, could be only initial move of the correcting in three waves as Minute wave ii (circle) or b (circle).
As shown on the charts below, the Minor wave C might trace out in an impulsive five-wave or three-wave sequence, to develop Intermediate fourth-wave (not shown) as a “flat” or “triangle” correction.
Elliott Chart 