Bullish Outlook :
The Crude Oil’s bear market could have concluded by Minor-degree extended wave C, in the February extreme-low at 26.05.
Technically, in the weekly frame a five-wave structure of Minute-degree to the upside will confirm the medium-term bullish case.
Bullish View :
As shown on the quarterly chart below, Oil could have started its countertrend rally in Intermediate wave (C) of a flat correction as Primary wave ((B)) since the February low (26.05).
The medium-term rally will carry the price above 103.42 likely in 2 or 3 years ahead.
In the Intraday charts, Gold is correcting up in Minute-degree wave ((ii)) after tracing out a leading diagonal as the same first-wave down.
A leading diagonal to the downside after an uptrend which resulted in an ending diagonal(of one larger degree), would suggest an excellent setup for short position.
Medium-term Uptrend :
The Gold’s 25% countertrend rally(in a five-wave structure) that started in early-December, should be first portion of the process of correcting up in the Primary wave ((B)). Subsequently, Intermediate wave (A) would be corrected now in its same degree wave (B) (potentially to the Fibo 0.50 retracement level).
Note : As denoted on the chart below, the wave (A)’s extreme well achieved the origin of the prior bullish diagonal as Intermediate wave (5). (technical targeting based on the patterns)
Correcting Down :
After unfolding an ending diagonal in Minor degree wave 5, Gold should be now in the early stages of correcting in likely an A-B-C zigzag (of one larger degree) to the downside.
Technically, the expected target at 1206 would be pointed well as Minor wave A’s extreme.
Bullish View :
The U.S. Dollar Index should have concluded its correction of Intermediate wave (4) as a flat at 91.92. The medium-term trend has turned up now, and subsequently advance in the same degree wave (5) could have started its way up.
The advance should eventually carry index toward the 103.32 level, where the same degree waves (5) and (1) are equal (a common relationship).
The U.S. Index has worked marching in place the week, so far. The short-term bearish case (the complex wave C in progress) well remains intact.
There are differing options that the entire correction as the Intermediate wave (4) could have developed, till here. A viable possibility, one that we should respect, is that the wave (4) would remain in the late stages of an ending diagonal in its Minor-degree wave C, as a flat correction.
There is no change in the prior short-term forecast. Euro has the same differing options for the entire correction as Intermediate wave (B), which can take as the U.S. dollar but flipped over.
The counter-trend rally in Minor wave C could be in place, to get to more complexity in its structure and last longer than it has so far.
Bearish View :
The Cable could be in the process of third-wave down of Minute-degree wave ((v)) toward the Fibo 1.618 expansion target at 1.3720.
The wave ((v)) would ultimately amount to 1.3521, before the end of Minor-degree extending wave 3.
In the U.S. Dollar’s daily chart, there are differing options that the entire correction as Intermediate wave (4) could have developed so far.
A viable possibility, one that we should respect, is that the wave (4) would remain in the late stages of an ending diagonal in its Minor-degree wave C, as a flat correction.
Elliott Chart 