The bearish alternative :
Gold appears to have developed the overlapping waves from the latest high at 1224.5 – likely in a leading expanding diagonal as wave (i) of an impulsive third wave down of minute degree.
Note : Penetrating the level of 1177.3, as a red line, would suggest that this pattern needs to be adjusted. Because third wave is never the shortest wave in a five-waves form.
The bearish alternative :
Under a bearish view in short term, Gold seems to have developed the overlapping waves from latest high at 1224.5 – likely in a leading expanding diagonal as wave (i) of impulsive third wave down.
Note : Penetrate the level of 1177.3, as a red line, would suggest that this pattern needs to be adjusted.
Gold is marching in place under extension of the b-d trend line of the running triangle wave (b). The outlook is bullish against the 1183.5, in short term.
The expected target for extreme of the rise in wave (c) likely ahead is through 1238.9, where wave (c) equals 0.618 times the length of wave (a).
Gold may be completing the latest wave of the running triangle (b) at the current levels. The ultimate target for ongoing wave e is 1183.5, where is the extreme point of the wave c of the same triangle. The outlook is bullish against the 1183.5, in SHORT term!
Note : The level of 1183.5 could be considered as a “Red line” on this pattern. Because, wave e of a triangle pattern never moves beyond the end of wave c.
Contracting Triangle:
“A triangle appears to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. The triangle pattern contains five overlapping waves that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 and are labeled A-B-C-D-E.”
As a rule about “Contracting Triangle” in Elliott Wave Principle :
” Wave C never moves beyond the end of wave A, wave D never moves beyond the end of wave B, and wave E never moves beyond the end of wave C. The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves B and D converges with a line connecting the end of waves A and C.”
The bullish alternative in short term :
Under the bullish outlook, Gold appears to have completed the running triangle wave (b) of an (a) – Triangle (b) – (c) formation, as the wave ii of minute degree.
Currently, the following wave (c) of wave ii (circled) may have started its way up. The expected target for the rise in wave (c) is through 1242.4, where wave (c) equals 0.618 times the length of wave (a) – a common wave relationship.
The bullish alternative in near term :
Under a bullish outlook, Gold may be developing an (a) – Triangle (b) – (c) formation, as the wave ii of minute degree. The wave (a) completed at 1219.8 – wave (b) triangle is completing – and wave (c) is ahead.
Currently, the latest wave of the running triangle wave (b) could be in progress. The ultimate target for the wave e of (b) is 1183.5, where is the extreme point of wave c of the triangle. And the estimate immediate target for the following wave (c) up is through 1233.7, where wave (c) equals 0.618 times the length of wave (a).
According to the broader bearish outlook :
Gold is falling in impulsive third wave of minuette degree, after retracing a Fibonacci 0.618 of the leading expanding diagonal wave (i).
The expected target is 1142.5, where wave (iii) = 1.618 times the length of wave (i) – a common wave relationship.
The near-term bullish outlook :
Gold may have completed the bearish leading diagonal wave (i), and now is retracing in three waves as wave (ii). On the ongoing wave (ii), wave a could be completed – wave b is in progress – and wave c will be ahead.
As the ultimate target, it is expected the corrective wave (ii) could achieves the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level at 1208.8. And also, the correction will take until end of the week, for achieving the Fibonacci 0.5 time ratio.
Alt : As a bearish alternative in short-term, the leading diagonal wave (i) may still be underway. The estimated target for extreme of the wave (i) is through 1165.7 – that is equivalent to the preceding diagonal wave (i).
The bearish outlook :
Gold appears to have fallen in the leading diagonal first wave of minuette degree. The eventual target for extreme of the ongoing wave (i) is through 1167.5, where establishes an equality ratio with preceding diagonal first wave of the same degree.
Alt : As an alternative, the leading diagonal wave (i) could be counted as a complete wave.
According to the bearish outlook :
Gold apparently is falling in a leading diagonal first wave of the minuette degree. The eventual target for extreme of the ongoing wave (i) is through 1167.5, where establishes an equality ratio with preceding diagonal first wave of the same degree.
Elliott Chart 